We are down to just six races until the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup. This would be a good time to look back at my picks for the Chase at the beginning of the season and look at the surprises and disappointments through 20 races.
My 16 Chase drivers:
Joey Logano
Jimmie Johnson
Jeff Gordon
Kevin Harvick
Brad Keselowski
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Matt Kenseth
Carl Edwards
Kyle Busch
Kyle Larson
Ryan Newman
Sam Hornish Jr.
Denny Hamlin
Kasey Kahne
Tony Stewart
Greg Biffle
The 16 Chase drivers as the grid stands after Indianapolis:
Joey Logano (1 win)
Jimmie Johnson (4 wins)
Kevin Harvick (2 wins)
Brad Keselowski (1 win)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2 wins)
Matt Kenseth (1 win)
Carl Edwards (1 win)
Denny Hamlin (1 win)
*Martin Truex Jr. (1 win)
*Kurt Busch (2 wins)
*Jamie McMurray
Jeff Gordon
Ryan Newman
*Paul Menard
Kasey Kahne
*Clint Bowyer
The (*)asterisk by the names are the drivers that are currently in the Chase that were not on my preseason list.
Let’s first look at the drivers I picked, that are currently in as of this Sunday’s race in Pocono.
Joey Logano: My preseason title pick got off to a hot start with the Daytona 500 win and some dominating Xfinity Series wins, but victory lane has eluded him since that February win in the Great American Race. I still like Logano’s chances because of the Ford horsepower on mile and a half tracks and Penske Racing’s strong qualifying efforts. Logano also has the ability to win the wild card at Talladega if something were to happen to Dale Jr. and the rest of the Hendrick bunch.
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has four wins and three of them have come on 1.5-mile tracks. There’s no question the 6-time Champ is a contender, but is he the favorite at this point? Chad Knaus knows the tracks in the Chase, but their communication has been off at times this season, and Johnson must qualify better or he will have to climb out of a hole on race day as he has several times this year. The other story that bears watching is Knaus’ contract is up after this season. Will he stay if the team does not have success in the Chase?
Jeff Gordon: In his final season in Sprint Cup, Gordon has yet to win a race. It could very well come this Sunday at Pocono, but Gordon has had some bad luck this season. His final race at Indy was a disaster as he got caught up in a crash when Clint Bowyer spun out. Not making the Chase would be awful and a huge hit to NASCAR’s playoff that requires the big names. As this point, everyone has to be rooting for Gordon to avoid trouble and get to Richmond in the top 16.
Kevin Harvick: No one should sleep on the defending Cup champion. Despite only winning twice, both races came early in the season, Harvick is still a great qualifier and a consistent top five finisher. Plus, I would never count him out in a must-win situation like the one he faced in Phoenix at the end of the season last year. His pit crew needs to be better and come through in the clutch for him to win back-to-back titles.
Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has struggled, but managed to keep himself out of any controversy this season. That will all go out the window once the Chase starts because Brad will do whatever it takes to win and advance to the next round. Keselowski is great at Chicago and Loudon, and wins at those two tracks would put him in a great spot to win his second championship.
Denny Hamlin: Despite a win at Martinsville, Hamlin has been quiet, but he would be my dark horse pick if the Chase started today because of his lightning fast Joe Gibbs crew, and his success at tracks in the final ten races.
Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is never really dominant anymore, but he is still very competitive in a quiet way. He rarely struggles or fails to finish a race and his pit crew is among the best on any given Sunday.
Carl Edwards: The transition from Roush to JGR was tough at the start, but Edwards is finding some speed of late. The fuel mileage win at the Coke 600 was huge and can be credited to a great crew chief in Darian Grubb who has found a way to win a championship before.
Kasey Kahne: In no way do I think Kahne will make any noise in the Chase, but his consistency will get him into the conversation going into Chicago. Don’t forget, he has some of the best equipment in the garage with Hendrick.
Ryan Newman: The cinderella story of 2014 was real close to winning a championship until Harvick snatched it away. Newman has had another solid season, but things will really need to fall his way again for him to be in the elimination round in Miami this year.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: The ultimate NASCAR storyline would be Junior finally breaking through and winning his first championship this year. Even more than that, it would be great for the sport if he just makes the final four at Homestead. His restrictor plate racing may be as good as his fathers at this point in his career. I’m just gonna say he’s going to win the Chase race at Talladega right now, but it’s hard for me to know what else will happen with NASCAR’s most popular driver.
Now let’s look at what I got wrong on my Chase picks at this point.
Martin Truex Jr.: The biggest surprise to me and other NASCAR experts is the success of Truex and Furniture Row Motorsports. He actually should have more than just the win at Pocono after dominating the Richmond and Kansas races in the spring. A lot of his success can be attributed to crew chief Cole Pearn, who has quickly become one of the brightest young minds in the garage. Does he have enough to win the Chase? Whatever happens, Truex has already had his best season in Cup.
Kurt Busch: No one would have thought Busch would be this good, especially after being suspended for the first three races of the season due to the domestic dispute he had with his ex Patricia Driscoll. Busch has been a factor in a lot of races and took the win at Richmond and Michigan. He has worked well with crew chief Tony Gibson after he came over from Danica Patrick’s team late last season.
Kyle Busch: The Busch brothers should do a reality show on this season and call it “Defying The Odds.” The younger Busch came back from a brutal crash at Daytona to win four of the last fives races. With the huge win at the Brickyard, Busch is the first Sprint Cup driver since 2007 to win three straight races. He is almost a lock to get into the top 30 and make the Chase at this point.
Busch has been dominant and he is truly benefitting from a Joe Gibbs Racing resurgence that makes him a legitimate championship contender. It’s a remarkable story, but even with his unprecedented run, Busch tends to get very frustrated with any lack of success or chaos early in the Chase.
Jamie McMurray: See the exact same thing as Kasey Kahne. These guys are almost the same driver just with different teams.
Sam Hornish Jr.: I figured Hornish would be this year’s A.J. Allmendinger and qualify for the Chase with a road course win. He finished 10th at Sonoma and still has a chance at Watkins Glen in August, but that would be the only way he gets in after a disappointing first season with Richard Petty Motorsports.
Greg Biffle: Roush Fenway Racing is about as low as it can be right now, but Biffle could still creep into the playoff. He is very good at Michigan.
Kyle Larson: A sophomore slump has seen Larson’s chances of making it very slim. He is so close to winning, but he has to channel his frustrations into success for that to happen in 2015.
Tony Stewart: Smoke admitted to Steve Letarte of NBC that he has lost confidence in this his worst Sprint Cup season. I think he needs a veteran crew chief, but he insists Chad Johnston is not the problem.
Paul Menard: Another upset pick to win a race in the Chase if he can hold on to his points position. His goal should be to stay out of trouble and not record any DNFs in the next few weeks.
Clint Bowyer: Still hanging on in 15th right now, but might be bumped out if Busch clears the top 30. More races like his sixth place finish at Indy will help him.
(Photo by Robert Laberge/Getty Images)